What a difference a year makes sometimes.  My wife Patrice reminded me that last January 7th, 2025 we had a snowfall (first since we have moved to South Carolina) and this year we broke the record high temperature at 74F.

We have not had any snow down here in Greer this year, but up in Asheville, North Carolina and up on the Blue Ridge they have had several snow events just about an hour away. 

When we lived in Atlanta, we could usually count on at least a dusting every year, so far here.. its like a crap-shoot it seems.

I'm that person who checks the weather forecast multiple times a day usually.  Even with new technology, I've learned that weather predictions (especially in the 10-14 day long range forecast) are just that, because things change day-to-day.

How much it changes from what the experts and the models are predicting now, to what really happens two weeks from now are good reminders of how hard it really is even to predict what is going to happen in the short-term let alone in a long term forecast.

What applies to the weather, also applies to the other things we predict in the long-range.  Everything from who will win the World Series this year in Baseball (maybe it will finally be the Padres year??), to who will win the Presidential Election in 2028, or what will the economy do in the next six months.

In our own personal lives, it is important to make plans for the long-term goals we have, but also to realize that things are going to change between now and then and that they have to be modified based on actuality. 

Those adjustments are the difference between the "long-range models" and is it raining today.